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NBA Playoffs opening weekend odds predictions and more, including the first USFL vs. XFL head-to-head.
NBA Playoffs looks promising, but expect a dip in opening weekend
The NBA playoff bracket is pretty much the best the league can hope for on paper. 2023 is the first postseason to include both in five years Lebron James And Stephen Curry. It includes all six active Finals MVPs: James, Curry, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo (And Andre Iguodala). It includes both New York teams and both LA teams, as well as teams that ended long playoff droughts in Sacramento (in its first postseason since 2006) and Cleveland (in its first postseason without James since 1998). If all goes as desired, the league could have a televised semifinal round Boston-Philadelphia, New York-Milwaukee, and most importantly, the Lakers vs. Golden State. Then again, despite decades of conspiracy theories about the league pulling the strings, things rarely go the way broadcasters would like them to.
As promising as this postseason is, it’s certain that opening weekend viewership will fall well short of last year’s. Last postseason’s opening Sunday was Easter, which has become a major television holiday in the out-of-home era. Sunday’s games will struggle to match last year’s Easter-driven levels, likely dragging down the average for the entire opening weekend. (Something to keep in mind as the inevitable headlines hit social media on Tuesday.) Nonetheless, Saturday’s games appear poised for solid gains, particularly the start of Golden State’s title defense.
The Warriors’ title run last year wasn’t quite as big as expected given how heavily they’d pulled during the regular season — let alone their previous title runs. Golden State’s mediocre record this season might actually help. The Warriors seemed somehow inevitable last season (even after two years in the lottery) and never faced much adversity. That was one thing when they were a historic super team, but more often than not a little mishap will show up in the ratings.
Finishing sixth this year, Golden State needs to make quite a bit of 1995 Rockets history to repeat themselves as champions, and starting against one of the more compelling postseason stories in recent memory — the resurgent Kings — should result in some more eyeballs this time hereabouts. Last year, Nuggets-Warriors Game 1 drew 4.52 million in the same Saturday night ABC window.
NBA Playoffs First Round, Warriors – Kings Game 1 (8:30 p.m. Sat ABC). Forecast: 5.06 million
After a 33-win season last year and a 2-10 start this season, it seemed likely LeBron James would miss the playoffs for an inconceivable third time in five seasons in Los Angeles. Instead, the Lakers flipped their season after the trade deadline and find themselves a trending choice for a deep run. As the defending champions two years ago, the Lakers entered the playoffs at an awkward time as a #7 seed and trending dark horse selection Anthony Davis Injuries ended their chances against Phoenix. As always, the Lakers’ chances depend on the availability of their stars. One can imagine the executives of the network crossing their fingers.
As for Game 1 vs. Memphis, the Lakers and Grizzlies have some bad blood — for whatever reason — which adds extra juice to this series. Expect a pretty sharp drop in viewership from last year’s 6.90 million Easter for Nets-Celtics, but a healthy number nonetheless. James’ two previous first-round opener games with the Lakers came in August and May, respectively. The last time he opened a postseason with Cleveland against Indiana was in April 2018, his Game 1 loss in the same Sunday ABC window drew 5.94 million.
NBA Playoffs First Round, Lakers – Grizzlies Game 1 (3p Sun ABC). Forecast: 5.84 million
Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant last played each other in the postseason for a quarter of the 2019 NBA Finals. Durant came back from injury in Game 5, his Warriors trailing 3 games to 1 and changing momentum immediately. Just as quickly, he tore his Achilles tendon in one of the more dramatic tonal shifts in playoff history. To find out when these stars last played each other in a full playoff game, let alone a full series, you have to go back nine years, to the Spurs-Thunder Western Conference Finals. Such is life in an NBA where the top stars have been highly injury-prone.
Leonard, who missed the end of the 2021 playoffs and all of last season with a cruciate ligament rupture, misses his comrade-in-arms PaulGeorge for this series. A completely healthy Clippers roster against this Suns team would have been a conference finals-quality matchup. Instead, Los Angeles is a decided underdog. Nonetheless, the stars in this series should move the needle enough to generate a healthy viewership. On Easter Sunday last year, Pelicans-Suns opened with 4.02 million.
NBA Playoffs First Round: Clippers – Suns Game 1 (8p Sun TNT). Forecast: 4.14 million
The Knicks are back in the playoffs for the second time in three years and face a Cavaliers team making the playoffs for the first time since 1998 without LeBron. By far the most convincing series of the Eastern Conference on paper, expect above-average numbers – and not only because of the presence of the New York media market. The 2023 Knicks may not be a title contender, but after the offseason they appear to be a more serious contender than they were two years ago Jalen Brunson. Likewise, these Cavaliers aren’t some cute underdog story, but one of the better teams in the league thanks to the addition of Star Guard Donovan Mitchell – a familiar figure from his Utah years. Perhaps the biggest draw in this series is the quality of the game. In the same window last year, Raptors sixers opened at 3.60 million.
NBA Playoffs First Round: Knicks – Cavaliers (6p Sat ESPN). Prediction: 4.02 million
How will the XFL and USFL fare in their first head-to-head duel?
One of the most intriguing experiments in recent history of sports television begins on Saturday as two football leagues battle it out for a limited audience in the spring. The XFL has played eight weeks this season, capping at 1.57 million viewers for a week-one game on ABC. The USFL’s last season opened with more than three million, but that was simulcast for a prime-time inaugural game that was broadcast on NBC and FOX. Aside from that, it peaked at 2.15 million for a week on NBC.
The key question as these leagues prepare for their first clash is whether the already limited football crowd can hold their own in two competing leagues in the spring. There are eight games between the two this weekend, including head-to-heads on Saturday night and Sunday afternoon. That’s more than a typical NFL weekend. Will viewers watching Vegas-Houston (XFL) on ABC Saturday afternoon switch to FOX for Philadelphia-Memphis (USFL) later in the day? Will they stay with the USFL in primetime or move to the XFL on ESPN2? Will they still have an appetite for Sunday’s slate, which kicks off with a head-to-head between Arlington-DC (XFL) on ESPN and Houston-Michigan (USFL) on NBC?
Expect the combined viewership to resemble a particularly good XFL weekend. Somewhere in the mid-range of a million per window, whether for the standalone games or the head-to-head games.
– XFL: Vegas – Houston (12:30 p.m. Sat ABC). Forecast: 1.06 million
– USFL: Philadelphia – Memphis (4:30 p.m. Sat FOX). Forecast: 1.34 million
– USFL: New Jersey – Birmingham (7:30 p.m. Sat. FOX) vs. XFL: Orlando – San Antonio (7 a.m. Sat. ESPN2). Predictions: 1.22M (USFL) and 243,000 (XFL).
– USFL: Michigan-Houston (Noon Sun NBC) vs. XFL: Arlington-DC (Noon Sun ESPN). Forecasts: 809K (USFL) and 519K (XFL).
Will college gymnastics be the next success story in women’s sport?
There’s been a lot of talk about the growth in women’s sports viewership lately, and the numbers from the women’s collegiate gymnastics national championships are another indication of this. Last year’s national championship averaged over 900,000 viewers, although it aired in an early timeslot to accommodate ABC’s NHL coverage. This time, locals get a later window at 4:00 p.m. ET leading to the local news, which alone should be enough to push viewership past the one million mark. No doubt much of this is attributed to LSU’s NIL-era star Olivia Dunnbut given that Dunne has only competed in four meetings all season (all on the relatively unremarkable uneven bars) and did not compete in Thursday’s semifinals, it seems unlikely that she is a factor.
NCAA Women’s Gymnastics National Championship: Oklahoma, Utah, Florida and LSU (4p Sat ABC). Forecast: 1.05 million
Previous Predictions
— NCAA WBB National Championship: LSU-Iowa. Forecast: 7.12 million; Result: 9.9 million.
— NCAA MBB National Championship: UConn-SDSU. Forecast: 13.94 million; Result: 14.69 million.
— MLB: Phillies Rangers. Forecast: 1.65 million; Result: 1.56m.
– NASCAR Cup Series: Richmond. Forecast: 1.92 million; Result: 2.30m.
— Australian F1 GP. Forecast: 678K; Result: 556K.