California Democrats are already looking into the 2022 congressional races with the dreaded woulda/coulda/shoulda even with a race too close to be announced. There have been several House races where Democrats have fallen short — some close enough where a stronger ground game could have been the difference.
Field campaigns are expensive. After all, Rick Caruso spent $16 million on field operations alone during his failed run for mayor, and that was just Los Angeles. Statewide campaigns are so prohibitively expensive that they are rarely even attempted in California.
However, one of the ways it could have made a difference was in several close runs from House. If the results hold, the state’s congressional delegation will be largely unchanged. It’s no exaggeration to say that California’s underinvestment in voting operations has cost Democrats their chance to retain control of Congress.
Modern GOTV operations include digital advertising on entries in addition to typical field and mail efforts. The majority of midterm campaigns devote nearly all of their effort to trying to persuade dropout voters — those who didn’t vote in the last midterm elections — or moderate voters with no formal party affiliation.
What they usually don’t do – unless they have the money – is talk to voters who turned out four years prior. In a cash-strapped campaign, there is less financial incentive to contact people who are likely to vote. They are not in the universe of the telephone. They do not receive digital advertisements. You just crossed your fingers and hoped that they would return to the polls.
The 2018 midterm elections saw a historically high turnout in California when nearly 65% of registered voters cast their ballots. California is still tallying this year’s results, but it’s clear the state is going to fall well below that mark. That means there were a lot of people that the campaigns were expecting, but weren’t.
In many states, there is a coordinated campaign system where the top campaigns coordinate all of their efforts on the ground with congressional, legislative, and local campaigns. They create field scripts that mention downvote candidates and share volunteers.
Crucially, they also run a large amount of digital and mail ads that target all voters who aren’t supposed to vote for the other side. This creates a ton of efficiency. Oregon, for example, has a long history of rolling out coordinated campaigns, and this year that was particularly prominent with a competitive race for governors and key races for open seats.
The Democrats did not have a coordinated campaign in California.
The candidates at the front of the ticket won by huge margins because the Republican Party of California is simply not competitive. There is little or no incentive for people running for state office or the U.S. Senate to share their wealth and support downvote candidates with a coordinated campaign.
And that’s what happened. The most recent financial reports show Governor Gavin Newsom had at least $20 million in the bank after spending the money on out-of-state ads and statewide ad buys. State Against Proposition 30, But Little Investment in Downvoting Contests.
This money also cannot be transferred to a federal campaign account.
It’s no secret that the governor harbors ambitions outside the state. And one of the best ways to gain support nationwide is to be a good Democrat, help other campaigns, and build your reputation with activists, insiders, and operators. Newsom could have waged a coordinated campaign narrowly focused on competitive congressional and state legislative districts.
More importantly, it would have meant shifting the cost of frontline staff, dialers, peer-to-peer texting platforms, digital GOTV ads from Congressional campaigns and into a coordinated campaign. This, in turn, would have freed up more funds for persuasive advertising. It’s just a much more efficient way to support candidates in tighter races.
And that might have made all the difference in getting a few more key runs from House rather than failing.
Julia Rosen is a founding partner of Fireside Campaigns and has nearly 20 years of experience organizing political campaigns and nonprofits. The author wrote this for CalMatters, a public interest journalism company committed to explaining how the California Capitol works and why it matters.