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Pearce Dietrich gives his best NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NASCAR Cup Series HighPoint.com 400 at Pocono.
NASCAR’s summer schedule is in full swing. The circuit bounces between the Midwest, South and Northeast. Each track is unique and no more unique than Pocono – better known as the Tricky Triangle. As always, trust the data, but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series HighPoint.com 400 at Pocono.
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Pocono can be weird. The best car doesn’t always win. Which is strange because the track is not very racy. Overtaking is limited. The best car has a clear advantage, and yet Pocono isn’t always won by the best car. There’s a reason Pocono is called the Tricky Triangle.
Last season Ross Chastain was wrecked battling for the lead with less than 20 laps to go. Denny Hamlin – the driver who destroyed Chastain – was stripped of the win and disqualified for illegal equipment (DraftKings Sportsbook honored the win and paid out winning picks of Hamlin and Chase Elliott). In Pocono’s second race of 2021, Kyle Busch won a fuel economy race in a car with a broken transmission. That wild finish wasn’t even the craziest finish of the weekend. Kyle Larson punctured a tire on the last lap while leading the first race of the Pocono double.
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Race winner — HighPoint.com 400
Denny Hamlin +550
Early in Hamlin’s career, Pocono was his stomping ground. He won at Pocono twice in his rookie season in 2006, then again in 2009 and 2010. Then he hit a decade-long drought. What happened? Just before Hamlin got back to winning ways in 2019, Hamlin hinted that a win was coming soon. How did he know?
Pocono was repaved in 2012. Hamlin figured out the worn flat corners of the original Pocono. The repave erases its advantage. Fast forward to 2019, and seven Pennsylvania winters later, and the old track was back. Hamlin won at Pocono in 2019, 2020 and unofficially in 2022. Plus, when he doesn’t win, another JGR Toyota does. Unofficially, JGR has won eight of the last 10 Pocono races.
Bubba Wallace +2800
Fuel consumption, stages and weather all play a role in determining results in Long Pond, PA. It’s not a plate race, but there’s just enough variability for long shots to have a chance. It is risky to avoid betting on Toyota JGRs. They earn a lot at Pocono, but they don’t pay very well. And long shots have won at Pocono in recent history. Chris Buescher won a weather-shortened race with tiny Front Row Motorsports. Ryan Blaney won at Pocono driving for the Wood Brothers.
Why not try your luck with Bubba? This race favors equipment over skill. His chances reflect his skill gap too much. He may not be Hamlin, but that doesn’t matter in Pocono. His Toyota 23XI will have about the same speed as the Toyota JGRs. The right strategic call could make all the difference.
Check back later this week for more NASCAR Match Bets and Prop Bets as soon as they are available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Race winner — HighPoint.com 400
Kyle Larson+750
This choice goes against the grain. As a general rule, choosing the fastest car is wise. It’s an effective strategy in Pocono, but the Tricky Triangle sprinkles in a bit of randomness. The best are not mandatory this weekend. That being said, Larson is expected in Pocono. He was good at Pocono driving Chip Ganassi but he came very close to a win with Hendrick. He punctured a tire while leading the final lap at Pocono in 2021 (his Hendrick teammate Alex Bowman took the win) and was runner-up in the second race of the doubles. His other teammate, Chase Elliott, won the 2022 race while Larson finished in the top 5. He’s close and Hendrick has speed at Pocono.
Kyle Busch +550
His victory at the Pocono 2021 was lucky. It was also bad luck. Its transmission was interrupted. He couldn’t shift gears. Nevertheless, he found a way to win. It’s what happens when a rider masters a track – four Pocono wins since 2017. Before Pocono was awarded the JGR DQs last season, Busch had earned his fourth-place runner-up and 12th-place finish in the top 5. Much of his success at Pocono is team-related, but RCR and crew chief Randall Burnett built a fast Chevy for Pocono last season. When Hamlin and Busch lost their final spots, Tyler Reddick in the #8 Chevy RCR finished second.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may occasionally play on my personal account in the games I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal views on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the views of DraftKings and are not a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment to create queues. I can also deploy different players and strategies than those I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.