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Pearce Dietrich gives his best NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out 400 in Richmond.
NASCAR returns to Richmond this weekend. This time we have a lot of data points. We have Richmond’s first race and a handful of races in the new 2023 short track package. As always, trust the data, but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out 400 at Richmond.
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Take your pick, or take both. There’s Richmond’s lap-by-lap data from the first race of the spring. There’s also lap-by-lap data from the other flat-track short races in the new 2023 short-track package. Barring chaos – and that’s not unlikely after an ugly Pocono race – the data points should be fairly predictive of Richmond’s second race.
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Race winner – Cook Out 400 in Richmond
Kyle Larson+500
What happens when stories and data align? Larson was angry at Pocono. Larson’s team was furious. There’s video online of the #5 Hendrick team standing, staring at the #11 car as Hamlin performs a burnout to celebrate the win at Pocono. Do you think these guys are going to do a little extra work this week? Someone tells his wives not to leave the light on, the crew sleeps in the store, if they sleep at all. My apologies to their children. There will be more tee ball games in the future, but this week is about Richmond. It’s about building the fastest hot rod the state of Virginia has ever seen. It’s about beating Hamlin on his home track – again!
Larson won Richmond’s first race. He won $1 million in North Wilkesboro. He won at Martinsville. And Phoenix should have been a win. His average lap time in the short track package is the fastest in NASCAR. The best driver has the fastest car, and now he and his team are crazy. Denny Hamlin has won the battle, but as has been the case throughout his career, this is going to cost him the war.
William Byron +900
His Richmond stats are checked. Byron led the most laps in race one (117) and his top-5 365 laps were the most. In the end, he finished 24th. Our old friend, the end-of-race warning, showed up on lap 372 of 400. Byron entered pit road in the lead and came out fourth. On the next reboot, he got dumped. Byron can’t complain. Kyle Larson dominated Phoenix’s race, but after a late warning, Byron snatched the win. At Richmond, Byron dominated but Larson took the win. One final point, Byron ranks second in average lap time in the short track package this season.
Check back later this week for more NASCAR Match Bets and Prop Bets as soon as they are available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Race winner – Cook Out 400 in Richmond
Alex Bowman +4500
That’s right, three Hendrick cars. Chase Elliott (+1600) isn’t a bad choice either. Josh Berry had a stroke of luck in Richmond’s first race, but No. 9 Hendrick Chevy was fast. No. 48 was strong too. Alex Bowman had the third-best average race position in the spring race. He won at Richmond in 2021, and the other short and flat in Virginia later this season at Martinsville. He’s not a favorite, but he never is when he wins, which makes payday quite enjoyable.
Kevin Harvick +750
The NASCAR playoffs are overrated, but Harvick wants to qualify for the playoffs in his final season. His position is pretty secure, but a win at Richmond would make life much easier. Harvick won Richmond’s second race last season. It was a long time coming. The Stewart-Haas Racing Fords had done well on short tracks for the past two seasons. Aric Almirola (+4500) won in New Hampshire in 2021 and Briscoe Hunt (+10,000) won at Phoenix in the spring of 2022. Harvick was one of the highest rated drivers on short track in 2022. This season his average lap time in the new 2023 short track package ranks in the top 5.
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