We’re looking ahead to Sunday afternoon (April 16, 2023) as the NOCO 400 comes our way from Martinsville Speedway in Martinsville, Virginia. This is the 9th 2023 edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Our friends at PrizePicks have a TON of awesome props for us to use.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to pick games based on fantasy points or individual stats. The goal is to create a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then choose whether or not you want to play for the powerplay or the flexplay. In powerplay, you must get each of your selections right in order to win. As for the Flex game, you have a little more wiggle room to win back some money.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score, which has a scoring system where first gets 45 points, second gets 42 points, third gets 41 points, and so on. Each guided lap NOW equals an additional 0.25 points. Each fastest lap driven corresponds to 0.45 additional points. Guided laps are 0.25 points per lap and the placement difference is plus or minus one point. In addition, stage wins are each worth one point.
For NASCAR, we’ll try to focus on the motherboard’s Fantasy Score and see which players could be over or under their projected total score. Let’s see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Points Totals
Chase Elliott Less 52.5 points.
The numbers are fairly unknown here. After all, Chase Elliott missed six races because of a broken leg. How will he fare on a short circuit characterized by lots of shifting and quick decision-making?
Elliott didn’t qualify well and is starting 24th. Is he contesting? Will Elliott finish the race? Playing the percentages doesn’t dictate a win and the increasingly likely chance he’ll finish outside the top ten on Sunday afternoon.
Aric Almirola minus 31.5 points.
The choice isn’t easy here as Aric Almirola thrives on some short distances. That third-place qualifying performance helps in the place differences department, though. If the Ford loses enough points, it could push its total score just below the 31.5 point mark.
He will not lead laps in Martinsville. That seems likely. His low downforce overall speed was only 16th at Richmond, so Almirola might falter a bit late. Take less here as other faster endurance cars wipe out the fastest and led lap categories for Sunday afternoon from Martinsville.
Brad Keselowski MORE 35.5 points.
This is RFK Racing’s next dice roll. Brad Keselowski starts 21st and consistency is on our side. Can Keselowski get close to the top 10? Now the good news is that Keselowski has finished in the top five three times in the last six appearances. Using this math again puts Keselowski in the green for us.
The Ford ends up where we need it week after week. In the last few races we were lucky again with the number 6. Let’s see what he can do on a track that might be cooler than expected.
Denny Hamlin MORE 47.5 points.
It’s unfortunate that Denny Hamlin has had some bad luck lately (sometimes through his own fault). However, he does enjoy leading laps in Martinsville. Last year he led 203 laps and over 100 laps in three of the last four races. The #11 Toyota also set a host of fastest laps.
Hamlin will start 11th on Sunday, which poses some dangers. However, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver believes he has the track conditions on his side. Few drivers love 20-second laps as much as Hamlin.
Christopher Bell MORE 50.5 points.
That could work again on Sunday afternoon. Constance’s Christopher Bell-Express is beginning to compete with the run driven by William Byron in 2021. Bell has six top ten results in eight races and leads in points. The #20 Toyota learned its lessons from some of its less-than-stellar run-ins earlier in its career.
Now the Toyotas look like good bets late on Sunday. Our idea is to play it safe and assume Bell rises enough to fight and lead a few laps. Again, a sufficiently positive difference in space puts us in the cash line. Watching the weather and keeping things simple is the goal.
- Joey Logano MORE 42.5 points
- William Byron LESS 58.5 points
- Ryan Preece LESS 38.5 points
- Chris Büscher MORE 24.5 points
- Kevin Harvick LESS 50.5 points
Play the NASCAR Fantasy Score now on PrizePicks
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Jordan McAbee joins the team in 2023 with his exclusive NASCAR DFS projections and algorithm-predicted goal order! In the 2022 DFS competitions, Jordan had a +33.92% margin which translates to +$10,467.06 profit and qualified for the Fantasy Racing World Championship.
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