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MLB Best Bets and Same Game Parlays for Saturday July 2nd


This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Picks Today: MLB Best Bets and Same Game Parlays for Saturday, July 2nd

RotoWire.com‘s Juan Carlos Blanco identifies his MLB bets and MLB player props he’s targeting today.

Last Article: 3-2 (+1.47 RW Bucks)

Season record: 38-45-4 (-10.17 RW Bucks)

I’m focusing on a few particularly vulnerable pitchers on Saturday’s busy slate, including a pair of left-handers at Coors Field who could pave the way for very high scoring early in the game.

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates

Starting pitchers: Aaron Ashby vs. Bryse Wilson

Ashby has had some bad luck this season as his 1-5 record and even his respectable 4.25 ERA are belied by several other metrics. The southpaw has allowed a tiny 4.0 percent barrel rate, a 27.5 percent sweet spot rate, .220 xBA, 11.0 K/9 plus .289 xwOBA and 3.03 xERA, both well below his respective actual numbers of 3.15 and 4.25 in these categories. Ashby also handicapped the Pirates for a deserved run with a hit across 5.2 innings at PNC Park back on April 27, and Pittsburgh have only averaged .234, .285 OBP and .302 wOBA against lefties at home since May 1 .

Wilson, who is called up by Triple-A Indianapolis for this start, is in the middle of another tough season as evidenced by his 0-4 record, 8.29 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. These numbers are pretty much an accurate representation of his work as he also has a .328 xBA, .542 xSLG and .400 xwOBA. The right-hander faded Milwaukee out over four innings in his last meeting with the Brew Crew this season; However, he starts Saturday with a 14.11 ERA, 2.59 WHIP and 2.5 HR/9 over his last 14.2 big league innings, and the Brewers have a .327 wOBA against righties at the last month Street.

MLB Best Bets for Brewers at Pirates

The selection: Brewers -0.5 – 1. 5 innings (odds TBD) for 1 RW buck

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies

Starting pitchers: Dallas Keuchel versus Austin Gomber

Keuchel introduced 15 swinging strikes in his first start for the Diamondbacks Sunday, but he still had plenty of contact while giving up four earned runs in six hits and three walks over 4.1 innings. The left-hander has an overall 7.93 ERA and 2.15 WHIP this season, along with a problematic combination of a 14.5 percent strikeout rate and a mammoth 12.4 percent walk rate. While a 4.41 xERA suggests Keuchel may not have fared quite as badly as his surface numbers suggest, Coors Field is the most dangerous field for any left-hander these days. Colorado was a whole different offense at home, where the Rockies posted an MLB-high 5.7 runs per game and also hit southpaws at home for a .308 average, .880 OPS, .381 wOBA and an MLB-high 26.0 wRAA .

Gomber hasn’t been any better than Keuchel overall, with the Rockies southpaw having encountered major problems at home himself. Gomber owns a 6.68 ERA, .336 BAA, and .410 wOBA over 33.2 frames at Coors, and Arizona has had a solid .322 wOBA against lefties on the road over the past month. Additionally, Gomber’s strikeout rate is down nearly a full 6.0 percent from last season, and he gave up at least five earned runs in three of his last four starts before being briefly demoted to the bullpen.

MLB Best Bets for Diamondbacks at Rockies

The selection: Over 6.5 runs – 1. 5 innings (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1.22 RW Bucks

Secondary picks: Rockies Over 3.5 runs – 1. 5 innings (+100 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck

Roundup of today’s best MLB bets

  • Brewers -0.5 – 1. 5 innings (odds TBD) for 1 RW buck
  • Diamondbacks-Rockies Over 6.5 runs – 1. 5 innings (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1.22 RW Bucks
  • Rockies over 3.5 runs – 1. 5 innings (+100 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck

Stay tuned to RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting tips from our group of handicappers with their expert MLB picks every day of the campaign.

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