In a quick update, before I head off to my son’s fifth grade (yes, it seems they have degrees for every school year these days), Paramount and Skydance Top Gun: Maverick earned $9.1 million on Thursday, down just 37% from last Thursday and 26% from Wednesday. This is, by default, the largest weekday-to-weekday drop the film has suffered since the day after Memorial Day, likely due to the $18 million moviegoers who tuned into it Jurassic World: Dominion. But even if it’s poorly reviewed IMAX, Dolby and various PLF screens at Universal’s (but probably “fine whatever” with most paying viewers) Dino Threequel, Tom Cruises, loses top gun The Legacy sequel is expected to hold its own in its third weekend.
Even a 55% drop (on par with American sniper on Super Bowl weekend 2015) would total approximately $45 million for the Friday-Sunday frame, which would bring the $170 million flick to a total of $388 million for 17 days. A 40% drop (on par with The Passion of Christ on the third weekend against Johnny Depp The secret window) are Top Gun: Maverick a $54 million weekend and a 17-day cume of $397 million. When that happens, it’s already over rainman ($172 million in 1988/$392 million adjusted for inflation) as Tom Cruise’s second largest “ticket-selling” domestic earner behind only him top gun ($176 million in 1986 and $4 million in 2013/$440 million). Its current 14-day total of $343 million means it will hit the top The Batman ($369 million) tomorrow for the 2022 silver medal.
If it goes by the “best case scenario,” it could just end the past weekend Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (around $398 million through Sunday night) to take over the domestic crown sooner rather than later. Assuming a continued 53/47 domestic/overseas split, the film should cost around US$645 million worldwide. Depending on how it plays against them overseas Jurassic world Movie, it could (emphasis on “might”) end the weekend closer to $750 million than $725 million. Anything over $694 million Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol In 2011/2012 it will become the second largest global giant behind only cruise ships Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($792 million in 2018). Assuming it thrives alongside the dinosaurs, it could crack $800 million by the middle of next week.
With Doctor Strange 2 Making under $5 million this weekend and coming June 22nd on Disney+, Top gun 2 and Jurassic world 3 can both lead the tables in terms of live-action biggies (while light year and Minions: The Rise of Gru both hope to become the first true animated blockbusters ever since Frozen II) for the next month. Marvel’s Thor: Love and Thunder opens July 8th after we have Jordan Peele’s nope (a horror film that could very well be a box office hit in North America) on July 22 David Leitch’s express train on August 5th and, uh, that’s it for the summer biggies. As others and I have said many times, this is a ridiculously easy summer.
There are several simultaneous reasons for this scarcity, including post-production delays due to Covid, studio shyness, streaming foolishly prioritizing cinema and 20th Century Studios/Searchlight delivering their entire roster to Hulu according to their Disney overlords. Still the same Spider-Man: No Way Home was incredibly leggy ($804 million from a $260 million debut despite a 67% drop in its second weekend) due to a lack of competition (and no outbursts in awards season), so was the designated crowd favorite to behold got to Top Gun: Maverick Leg far beyond what is normal for even a popular summer biggie. How (without further ado) Dune, Free Guy, Godzilla Vs Kong and Unexplored, Top Gun: Maverick fares much better than it might without Covid in 2020 or 2021.