Lightning vs. Rangers tips, odds: expert predictions for Game 6 of the NHL Eastern Conference Finals

The New York Rangers had the Tampa Bay Lightning on the sidelines less than a week ago when they went 2-0 up midway through Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Since then, the Bolts have beaten the Rangers 10-2, including Thursday’s 3-1 win in Game 5 at Madison Square Garden. That loss ended the Rangers’ eight-game winning streak in New York and now has them one game before elimination after dominating their first two games against Tampa Bay.

At times the Rangers looked like the better team in the series, but now the Lightning have found their groove.

The Lightning are big favorites (-185) in Game 6 at home and now -500 to reach the Stanley Cup Finals against the Colorado Avalanche. All The Athletics Experts expect the Lightning to wrap up the series on Saturday night at the Amalie Arena.

When is Lightning vs Rangers game 6?

8 p.m. ET on Saturday

Where to watch and stream Lightning vs Rangers?

Channels: ESPN, CBC, SN

Stream: ESPN+, SN now

Eastern Conference Finals schedule

Game 1: Ranger 6, Lightning 2

Game 2: Ranger 3, Lightning 2

Game 3: Lightning 3, Rangers 2

Game 4: Lightning 4, Rangers 1

Game 5: Lightning 3, Rangers 1 | Lightning line 3-2

Game 6: Rangers at Lightning | Saturday June 11 | 8 p.m. ET

Game 7*: Blitz at Rangers | Tuesday 14 June | 8 p.m. ET

Each day during the Stanley Cup Playoffs, The Athletic writers will make their selections head-on. We’ve put our picks, TV schedule and all series coverage, as well as the latest ratings, in one place for fans to easily digest and follow. Our in-depth NHL coverage is linked under the tips. For live NHL odds from BetMGM click here.

What are the odds for Rangers in Lightning Game 6?

Series quotas: Lightning -500, Ranger +375

Lightning vs Rangers game 6 preview

Game 5: Lightning 3, Rangers 1 | Tampa Bay leads 3-2

Summary by Shayna Goldman

Who was the guy: Mikhail Sergachev isn’t known for his goals, but he used his shot to make the difference in Game 5. In addition to his goal to make it 1-1, his shot was deflected from the point to defeat Igor Shesterkin for a second time. His two main points had a direct bearing on his team’s victory. In addition to those two points, the Lightning tipped the ice with him in five-for-five — with 23 shot attempts on the Rangers’ 15 — and more than doubled their opponents’ scoring chances (12-5). The defenseman’s 3.65 game score, according to Hockey Stat Cards, was his best of the postseason and fifth-best overall of the year.

What was the key: The Lightning might not have had their best opening frame in Game 5, but they upped their game by a notch over the next 40 minutes. They didn’t allow Rangers to create a single dangerous shot in the second period at five-a-side and they conceded just one in the third while scoring six themselves. After Tampa Bay fell below breakeven on expected goals in the first half, Tampa Bay responded at 75 percent in the second and managed to balance its offensive attack with strong third-half defense to maintain the lead.

Key Stats: Here are two numbers – 25 and 26. The first represents the collective number of giveaways across all situations for the Rangers, with every player having at least one except for Barclay Goodrow, Chris Kreider, Filip Chytil and Ryan Lindgren.

The second represents what percentage of expected goals Rangers will score according to the Natural Stat trick five-on-five, with Mika Zibanejad taking on Anthony Cirelli.

Matchup play has been an issue for New York throughout the postseason, especially on the road. Opponents lined up their best defensive skaters against their top line and usually emerged victorious. Cirelli is Lightning’s best shutdown center and held his own in the playoffs against top competition. While the Rangers had ice at home, Tampa Bay still managed to challenge their line of Cirelli, Alex Killorn and Brandon Hagel — and the defending champions won’t make that any easier if they made last changes in Game 6.

Lightning vs Rangers Expert Tips and Predictions for Game 6

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(Photo by Ondrej Palat: Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA Today Sports)