I have some concerns about Xbox and Game Pass

It’s been a tumultuous decade for Xbox overall after the huge success of the 360 ​​era. While I won’t be bringing the entire Xbox One period back to court, needless to say it wasn’t the start they needed and not the end result they wanted and the sales race against the PS4 with esteemed Lost 2 to 1.

Now that we’re two and a half years into the Xbox Series S/X generation, things should be different. Microsoft has learned from its mistakes with its hardware and created a powerful, relatively uncontroversial console. They had acquired an enormous number of talented studios that would start making games to rival Sony and Nintendo.

That hasn’t happened yet, and it still feels like the first potentially mega-hit blockbuster they’re producing could be next fall’s Starfield, which was delayed by a full year. But even that is no guarantee.

That’s not to say Xbox had NO meets. They have, just not quite on the scale they need. In fact, they won Publisher of the Year on Metacritic in 2021, with high scores for games like Microsoft Flight Simulator, Forza Horizon, and Psychonauts 2. Recently, they surprised everyone with an immediate launch of the rather fun Hi-Fi Rush, but it feels like the big success stories end there.

There seems to be an undercurrent of mismanagement among first-party studios, new and old, when it comes to large-scale releases. We haven’t seen anything remotely substantial from the new Fable game Perfect Dark or Avowed, with whispers that some of those projects may be struggling. The most well-known release of the last three years has been Halo Infinite, which was a bit enthusiastic at first but later didn’t know how to run it as a live service and it took an extremely long time to get close to this part of the game in an ok state. It’s just another example of Halo never reaching its old heights below 343.

Now we have Redfall and Starfield, two Bethesda-based productions. While it’s still too early to judge these final products, Redfall has been delayed for more than 6 months and still launches with no 60fps option. Starfield was delayed a full year after confidentially forecasting a specific release date of November 11, 2022.

Then there’s Xbox Game Pass.

Yes, it’s true that Xbox Game Pass is one of the main draws of the entire Xbox ecosystem. So much so that Microsoft has been outspoken that they care less about console sales (and recent estimates are that the Xbox Series X/S may fall well behind PS5 again after Sony’s side of the equation fixes supply issues) and more about Game Pass -Get subscribers.

I know what Microsoft said about Game Pass, that despite speculation it’s profitable and that they will continue to offer first-party launches on the first day of Game Pass. I’m less confident that this is sustainable over the long term, and I think we just have to look at the broader subscription streaming industry to see that.

We’ve seen big streamers run into big problems in their philosophy. Netflix faces an immense debt burden due to the sheer volume of content it now produces. Warner Bros. Discovery has retired a lot of HBO/Max/Discovery content and raised prices drastically. On the film side, most big-name studios are beginning to realize that putting a bunch of films in their service on day one rather than bringing them back to theaters after the pandemic is the wrong move is the wrong move, and that’s why they want everyone to start shelling out movie tickets again. And you are.

My question is how many sales of $70 releases can Microsoft forego while chasing more Game Pass subscribers? At a certain point it feels like you’re hitting saturation and we’re already seeing that with slowing subs. Sure, maybe you wanted Halo Infinite “for free,” so you subscribed to Game Pass. But now you get Starfield, Redfall, Fable, Perfect Dark and all those other releases too. You’re only a new sub once.

Skyrim was last reported to have sold 30 million copies over its lifetime, and it seems like Elder Scrolls VI will likely be an Xbox exclusive release, likely releasing on Game Pass like everything else. Series that Microsoft plans to acquire through the Activision deal, Diablo and Call of Duty, have sold between 20 and 30 million copies at each rate. That is a serious Amount of money stays on the table, which is why you don’t see Sony or Nintendo producing anything remotely like Game Pass, at best they’ll sell the games new for a year and then maybe add them to a service later.

I’m not denying that Xbox Game Pass is a great deal for consumers. It is absolute. But on Microsoft’s side, it’s really hard to believe that they can fund all of these upcoming huge blockbusters from their new studios with nothing but Game Pass revenue, where there seems to be a cap on the total number of subs, or at least a slowdown the capture rate.

I know that Microsoft wanted to be the Netflix of gaming with Game Pass, but between delays and obvious mismanagement of the big games Are Launch on Game Pass and the issues with the subscription models in the rest of the media, I just don’t know how long that can last.

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