The NBA Finals returns west as the Golden State Warriors host the Boston Celtics for a vitally important Game 5.
The pre-game narration: Golden State tied the series to two after a back-and-forth contest Friday night at TD Garden. We were treated to another classic performance from Steph Curry, where the future Hall of Famer dropped 43 points with 10 rebounds.
Here are our picks for Game 5 Celtics vs. Warriors for June 13th.
Warriors vs. Celtics tips at a glance
- Warriors Moneyline in Q3 (-115)
- Warrior -3.5 (-113)
- Curry over 31.5 points (-103)
Warriors vs. Celtics picks
Best Bet: Warriors 3Q ML (-115)
After four games, Golden State has won every third quarter of that series.
The Warriors did a great job executing their halftime adjustments, outclassing the Celtics 136-87 (+49) in the third frame. This is nothing new for Steve Kerr’s side, which have dominated the break for years.
The Warriors had the highest third-quarter net rating from 2015-19 and the second-best 3Q net rating this season — only behind the Celtics.
Boston’s magic in the third quarter is gone, however, as the Celtics have a -9.5 3Q net rating in the playoffs. While the Celtics are coming out of halftime, the Warriors are thriving in the third with a +11.5 net rating.
It seems like Golden State won’t be absent this quarter. The Dubs rank fifth among all playoff teams with a 56.8% third-quarter effective field goal percentage while their assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.31 is the best in the league.
In that series alone, Golden State has an incredible net rating of +50.6 in Q3 with an incredible 143.2 points per 100 possessions.
Until proven otherwise, there’s no reason to believe the Warriors can’t pull off a notable success from the half.
key stat: Golden State has an effective field goal percentage of 60.8% in the third quarter of Finals games, while Boston is at 40.4%.
Warrior -3.5 (-113): Golden State, dominating third place, would not only be great for our best bet, but would also help us redeem that pick. The Warriors have been phenomenal on the home court under Steve Kerr in the playoffs, with a 55-12 record since 2015.
In these playoffs, they are 10-1 at home and averaging 116.1 points per game. Boston needed a historic comeback to win Game 1. So expect Golden State to take care of business at the Chase Center.
Curry over 31.5 points (-103): We’ll continue to follow Curry’s points prop until he gives us a good reason not to. The 34-year-old sniper shifted gears in the finals, averaging 34.25 points per match while shooting an incredible 49.1% from deep (25 out of 51).
Curry has exceeded that number in two of the four games in this series, just missing in Game 3 (31 points) while attempting just one free throw.
Odds as of 11:35am ET on 6/12/22.
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