Game 4 Warriors vs. Celtics NBA Finals Prop Picks: Thompson, Poole should deliver

The Boston Celtics can take a two-game lead in the NBA Finals when they host the Golden State Warriors at TD Garden on Friday night.

The pre-game narration: Boston leads 2-1 after another impressive performance in the fourth quarter of Game 3, reflecting his late-game dominance from Game 1. Golden State is yet to lose a straight game in the postseason.

Here are our Game 4 Warriors vs. Celtics prop picks for June 10th.

Warriors vs. Celtics prop selection at a glance

  • Klay Thompson over 26.5 points/assists/rebounds (-115)
  • Jordan Poole over 11.5 points (-113)
  • Marcus Smart over 4.5 rebounds (+120)

Warriors vs. Celtics prop picks

Best bet: Thompson over 26.5 PRA

To some extent, all of the prop markets on the Golden State side have been affected by the health of Superstar guard Steph Curry, who was in noticeable pain towards the end of Game 3.

Continue reading: Warriors vs Celtics Game 4 Picks

Curry compared his discomfort to the foot injury he sustained in the regular season against Boston that forced him to miss the final 12 games of the regular season. However, he intends to qualify for Game 4.

We are not concerned here with the role of the doctor, but with the role of the opportunist. If Curry is restricted in any way, Klay Thompson should be one of the main beneficiaries on the stat sheet.

After two quieter games to open the series, Thompson accumulated 25 points (including five threes) on three rebounds and three assists in Game 3. He’s effective in seemingly all situations, but efficiency improves when his colleague Splash Brother isn’t in Court.

Thompson Statistics Purpose of use% eFG% reb% Branch%
With curry 21.6 53.5 6.7 9.4
Without curry 27.7 56.4 5.7 12.0

Regardless of what explains Curry’s off-court Effective Field Goal Rate (eFG) improvement, we’re going to focus on Thompson’s increase in usage rate as it means additional opportunities to improve stats.

If Curry can handle his regular workload on Friday, it’s still a reasonable line for Thompson, who is putting on an excellent Game 3 performance. But if Curry is limited, we expect Thompson to clear that prop with ease.

key stat: Thompson is averaging 22.7 points per 36 minutes without Curry in the playoffs, versus just 18.6 points per 36 minutes with Curry.

Quick selection

Poole over 11.5 points (-113): We’re basing this pick on common precedent as Poole has scored 12+ points in 10 of 14 games since the start of Round 2 (averaging 16.1 points per game over that span).

As floor general for the Warriors’ second unit, Poole would arguably see the greatest opportunity with Curry playing a reduced role in Game 4.

Smart over 4.5 rebounds (+120): Boston’s dominance on the glass was a crucial action in Game 3, and Smart was right in the middle. Smart grabbed seven boards and is now averaging 5.7 rebounds in his last 10 games.

Defensive Spark has erased that line in seven of those 10 games. At plus money there is good value for this brace.

Odds as of 4:43pm ET on 06/09/22.


Jordan Horrobin writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @JordanHorrobin

Disclaimer This content was created as part of a partnership and as such may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.

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