When the off-season started, I was kind of on Jalen Hurts. I wasn’t convinced he was the Eagles’ best plan as quarterback. That went double when they traded a first-round draft pick in 2022 as part of a package that included a first-round draft pick in 2023, where the class is expected to load at quarterback. Aha!I thought, more ammo for the Eagles to step up and draft a new quarterback.
But then the Eagles’ offseason decisions made me smarter.
They didn’t add a quarterback this offseason. They retained Gardner Minshew as Hurts’ replacement. And they drafted AJ Brown to support Hurts. And after an early ebb and flow in hurts training camp, the third-year passer seems poised to take a step forward as a passer while remaining a ferocious threat as a rusher.
Hurt’s only drive against the Jets on the team’s 2022 preseason debut further solidified all of that. Shoot, Hurts’ first attempt at a pass was a beauty – he extended the game by moving right and with defenders protecting him from taking off as a runner, Hurts had the space to get Quez Watkins deep down near the to find the right touchline open and put it down with aplomb for a 28-yard gain. Twice on the drive, Hurts saw the Jets cover seven defenders, first checking Miles Sanders with a dump pass for 12 yards and then checking Watkins with a four-yard flat cross. I could be finicky about his decision to exit the pocket early in third and run, or the speed he showed on his deep throw against Dallas Goedert, but he can correct the former and the latter still resulted in a touchdown.
This was a very good performance for Hurts. If I’m confident Hurts have a brilliant season ahead of them, then so should you. I also predicted that he would have one of the easiest schedules in the league for a quarterback, and that was before training camp even started.
Could I see him in my top five as a quarterback? I think I might get there in the next week or two. top three? That’s a tougher sell. But fantasy managers looking to capitalize on Hurt’s extreme upside shouldn’t be afraid to take such a risk in their designs.
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The sophomore sleeper no one is after
Trey Lance and Justin Fields both hit some nice throws in their preseason debuts, but nobody’s talking about Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence as a 2022 fantasy breakout. They should.
Lawrence played without Christian Kirk and was on time and on target with all but three throws against the Browns (one was a throw-away). He had a few drops from Zay Jones and Travis Etienne, and he had a misunderstanding with tight end Evan Engram. But he moved around and out of the pocket well – his zone read fake against Etienne led to an 11-yard run on his first pull.
There should be no trepidation about Lawrence’s design. Yes, his receiving corps could get more exciting, but it will be up to Lawrence to get the most out of the players he has. At least in the case of Kirk and Etienne he has a certain speed, and in both Zay and Marvin Jones and Engram he has a certain size. This group shouldn’t be as bad as last year. Also, Jacksonville should be throwing a lot this season.
Best of all, Lawrence is good after Lance and Fields because he doesn’t have the same buzzing head as they do. But Lawrence rushed for 334 yards and two points last season, along with over 750 yards in his last 25 collegiate games (30 yards per game). That’s not nothing.
Don’t hire Lawrence as a starter unless it’s a league that uses multiple quarterbacks. But tucking him in case he gets off to a great start is definitely one of the cards I have up my sleeve in my one-Qb drafts.
The sophomore breakouts that everyone is chasing
- Trey Lance: The big guy seemed a lot more comfortable and understood what to do when a pass rush came his way. I thought he did a good job of getting out of the bag when needed and staying in otherwise. I liked that he slipped on his seven-yard run. And he clearly read the Packers defensive cover correctly and looked from his bomb’s only fuse to Danny Gray. This is the kind of stuff that will help him have big numbers in 2022. I think his accuracy on intermediate throws might be an issue, which is common for young quarterbacks. Once a quarterback solves that, he usually breaks out. Lance might not be doing that very quickly this season, but he could still have some very good fantasy numbers because of his rushing and insane throws (and good reads on deep bombs). Here it is again for those who missed it: No one in any position has as much overall potential after picking #100 as Lance. Once I get to that point in a draft, whether I need a quarterback or not, I look for him. And he plays the bears’ pathetic defense in week 1, so you could potentially start him right away.
- Justin Fields: The Bears rookie also looked smoother and seemed to be reading the Chiefs’ defense a little faster than the last time we saw him. He made two deep throws from 26 and 19 yards, both of which were good, but his receivers (Darnell Mooney on the longer, Tajae Sharpe on the shorter) made excellent plays to reel in the catches. Can the boys keep up? Thinking Mooney can is possible, but he needs a sidekick alongside Cole Kmet. The bigger problem for Fields is his offensive line, which struggled to buy him time in the pocket preseason. This is expected to continue to happen throughout the season as the top five count as a bottom 10 unit. It will lead to some improvisational mobility from Fields, which is good for his stats, but it could also mean more off-target throws that would require his passers to emerge as heroes. It’s also not good for the offense in general or for Fields’ health. He stays behind Lance in the rankings for me, but it’s worth a speculative pick for Round 11.
And a sophomore quarterback nobody’s after
- Zach Wilson: Nobody will call Wilson up in a one-QB league because he won’t be ready to start the season. I’m not sure anyone should have that, even if they had two good legs. Wilson threw only five passes, but one was airmailed well out of Garrett Wilson’s reach, and another was picked up by linebacker Kyzir White when Wilson missed it before throwing Corey Davis into close cover. His three completions each covered less than 10 meters. I’m curious to see how Joe Flacco fares with the Jets offense while Wilson is out — and if he can somehow keep the job past week 1 or 2, Wilson could be headed for the fantasy desert.
The thin one…
- Markus Mariota: I think it needs to be taken more seriously as a Superflex/Two-QB option. He didn’t seem to care if it was preseason, he just played like he always does – free and fast. He hasn’t thrown much (no complaints about his passing) and his decision to run 12 snaps three times in a meaningless game feels like a harbinger of things to come. Mariota said after the game there was nothing he could do about it, so he was wired. Fantasy managers love mobile quarterbacks and here’s one that could be pretty good because he’ll be running a lot.
- Daniel Jones: First impression of him in 2022? Not good. Jones missed a lob to the flat, struggled with obvious pass rush situations when the Giants’ O-line couldn’t keep him clean and held the ball too long. Hopefully things will get better on both blocking and passing, but given his unimproved game and the suspicious receivers he’s working with, this offense could be ugly. I’m not sure Jones would be a priority even on Superflex designs.
- Baker Mayfield: Carolina’s starter (come on, it won’t be Sam Darnold) had very good speed with his throws, but there were known concerns. I thought he was holding the ball for too long, I think he preferred throwing down the middle and he misunderstood a pass to Brandon Zylstra. The latter will work out I think, but the other stuff followed him from Cleveland. I’m still happy about him in leagues that start two quarterbacks, but I wouldn’t touch him in formats that only start one.
- Malik Willis & Desmond Ridder: Both ran well – Willis is already a big time difference on the floor. I think he could be in a damn good RPO package with Derrick Henry. But it’s not enough to make him palatable in newly drafted leagues – his passport needs editing. Ridder is further along as a pitcher, but I felt like he still didn’t have top-notch speed and continued to rely on throwing lobs so his receivers could make a play (that’s how the Falcons won their game in Detroit). I’m not sure how much steam each player has in Dynasty given the limited draft capital their teams have invested.