Another week, another series of surprises from popular NFL survivor pool picks. As we head into week three, just over a quarter of the survivor pool entries across the country are still alive. And don’t look now, but this week offers more challenges as no team is currently favored by more than one touchdown. Luckily, PoolGenius football pool experts are here to help you find the best NFL survival pool picks for week 3.
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Week 3 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Tips, strategy for picks
Always remember that the analysis below is a general level and does not take into account the specific rules or the size of your pool or the teams you have already selected. For our pick recommendations for your particular pool, please see our NFL Survivor Picks product.
Note: The Pick Popularity numbers below represent the estimated percentage of Survival Pool entries across the country that have already picked that team. These numbers are subject to change throughout the week, so check our product for the latest data.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Popularity of Survivor Pick: 30% (most popular choice)
Point distribution: -7.0
The Chargers are the Week 3 “big” favorite and the most popular pick. We put “largest” in quotes there for several reasons. First of all, this is a very tough week with no big favourites. The Chargers are preferred by one touchdown, just ahead of six other teams who are preferred by 4.5 to 6.5 points.
Second, Chargers QB Justin Herbert sustained a fractured rib cartilage against the Chiefs last week, and while it’s currently believed he’ll survive the injury, that’s still not a certainty.
Therefore, you should carefully monitor the situation before making a decision. The latest Herbert news could still cause shifts in both the odds and the popularity of Chargers.
WEEK 3 FANTASY PPR RANKING:
QB’s | RB’s | WRs | TEs | D/STs | table football
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts
Popularity of Survivor Pick: 25%
Point distribution: -6.5
Kansas City has a very high pick popularity for a team favored by less than a touchdown. That’s somewhat understandable considering there aren’t any big favorites this week. People seem to be falling back on the team they think is the best and playing against an opponent who was ruled out last week. However, as we found with the Chargers, there are several other teams that are similarly favored in the betting markets.
Kansas City has our third highest future value rating at two weeks and will have many future weeks where it will be a valuable survival pick, especially in larger pools that are likely to still be active past week 8.
The combination of the Chiefs’ high popularity, roughly similar winning odds to a number of other teams, and high future value make them a team we probably won’t be recommending broadly this week.
WEEK 3 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel | Yahoo
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
Popularity of Survivor Pick: 12%
Point distribution: -4.5
The Bengals have pretty little future value after starting 0-2 and from that perspective they are an option to at least consider.
Normally, their relatively low odds (67 percent as a -4.5 point favorite in the betting markets) would make them a team to avoid, but this is not a normal week. With more than half of the public’s early favorites centered on two teams that aren’t much more favored, the Bengals at least offer a risk-versus-reward payoff to ponder.
Of course, some survivor players have to overcome the mental block of a Bengals vs. Jets game, as New York’s excitement of the Bengals in Week 8 last year knocked out 40 percent of the remaining survivors, one of the biggest elimination events this season.
MORE POOLGENIE: Week 3 Pick your pool tips
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Popularity of Survivor Pick: 8th%
Point distribution: -6.0
While some survivor pool players remember being knocked out by a Bengals-Jets game last year, others may have nightmares that the Vikings lost in the final game of Week 13 to the Lions as the week’s most popular survival pick .
As of this writing, the Vikings are six-point favorites against the Lions, giving them similar odds to Kansas City this week. Meanwhile, Minnesota is picked three times lower than the Chiefs and Chargers with a popularity rating of just eight percent.
That combination gives Minnesota a pretty good “expected value” this week. The Vikings have solid future value despite not being in our top 5 on this metric. They play the Bears at home in Week 5 and later in the year host the Jets and Giants in weeks where we predict Minnesota has a greater than 75 percent chance of winning.
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Philadelphia Eagles with the Washington Commanders
Popularity of Survivor Pick: 6%
Point distribution: -6.5
After their impressive 2-0 start and a tasty upcoming schedule, the Eagles have moved up to No. 2 in our Future Survivors rankings, behind only Buffalo. We currently expect them to be favored in every remaining matchup and have 70 percent or better odds in 10 more games.
That includes this week where the Eagles are preferred over Washington by 6.5 points, matching Kansas City’s odds and similar to the Chargers and Vikings. With a popularity of just six percent in the public pick, they would hardly be used for a team with a risk profile similar to that of the Chiefs and Chargers. That gives a really good “expected value” if you’re willing to sacrifice the option of using Philadelphia in the future.
However, we’ve already seen the popularity of Philadelphia’s selection rise and it could continue to soar as the week progresses, having just put in an impressive display against the Vikings on Monday night.
Football Tips from TeamRankings:
Survivor Pool Picks | Pick ’em Pool Picks | NFL Betting Tips
Get our week 3 survival picks for your pool!
Each possible NFL Week 3 survivor has both an expected value in the current week (based on their odds and popularity) and a future value associated with saving that team for later use. Understanding these value metrics is key to attracting more Survivor pools over the long term, and they can vary significantly depending on your pool’s characteristics (such as size and rules).
It takes a lot of data and math to figure out which pick (or combination of picks if you’re playing multiple entries) will give you the greatest advantage to win your 2022 survival pool. That’s why we’ve spent years developing our NFL Survivor Picks product.
It asks you a few questions about your survivor pool, then provides customized pick recommendations using the latest matchup data, betting market odds, and public pick trends. It keeps track of the picks you’ve already hit and even recommends how to split your picks if you’re playing multiple entries.
There’s nothing quite like it, and our subscribers have reported over $3.7 million in survivor pool earnings since 2017. We invite you to give it a try and good luck in your survivor pools this week!
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We invite you to try it and good luck in your survival pools this week!