It wasn’t their biggest game of the season, but TCU’s Week 8 loss to West Virginia last season seemed like the turning point. The Frogs were 3-3 and finished an ineligible bowl 5-7.
That led me on: what game of the season will we really learn about each team in the Big 12? What will be the point where we will see the true success a team will or will not have?
That doesn’t mean theirs largest Game par excellence – rather the game that could put the stamp “DONE” on every team. Or the one who plunges them into conversations.
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Baylor Bears: Week 5 vs. Oklahoma State
There are many questions for the 2022 Baylor Bears, who lost a ton of their 2021 Big 12 Championship team in the offseason. They have a tough test ahead of them as they travel to Provo to face BYU, but a loss there could be written off as a stroke of luck and an odd setting.
Are we instead talking about a 5-0 Baylor team poking around in the top 10? A 3-2 Baylor squad outside of the top 25? Their home game against the Pokes will set expectations for the Bears, who head to big games in Oklahoma and Texas later in the year.
Iowa State Cyclones: Week 10 vs. West Virginia
Why so late for the state of Iowa? Their Vegas win total is 6.5 – they fluctuate around bowl eligibility. Their Week 10 home game against West Virginia comes in the middle of a Big 12 Murderer’s Row of Kansas State, in Texas, a bye week, against Oklahoma and in Oklahoma State.
If you lose that, you can’t make a bowl game.
Kansas Jayhawks: Week 1 vs. Tennessee Tech
Tennessee Tech is far from the toughest test of the year for the Jayhawks, especially given their home treatment earlier in the year. But how does Kansas handle this game? Is that an ugly 17-10 win? Or do they mind business?
Kansas isn’t one to make a splash with the Big 12 this year – although they’ve proven to be a thorn in the side of several teams – but this opener will set the tone for KU from the get-go.
Kansas State Wildcats: Week 4 in Oklahoma
As I’ve outlined in some previews, I think Kansas State is going to be a pretty good football team. Luckily, I won’t have to wait long to find out if this lands on Freezing Cold Takes by October.
K-State has taken two of the last three from Oklahoma, and a trip to Norman marks the start of conference games for Kansas State. When they go in and have their doors blown off by Brent Venables & Co., we see the Wildcats differently than when they’re close or even win.
Oklahoma Sooners: Week 3 in Nebraska
Yes, I’m aware that Nebraska finished 3-9 and that Scott Frost is in the hot seat. But how is Oklahoma handling its Lincoln business after a home scare last year? The Huskers got into the Palace on the Prairie and almost tore down Oklahoma #10.
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Venables’ first two games as head coach of the Sooners will be against UTEP and Kent State; We’ll learn a lot more about what to expect in OU’s early season in Week 3. Nebraska played hard and physically against them last year. They also face a familiar opponent: former Texas QB Casey Thompson, who threw for 388 yards and five touchdowns at OU last season.
Oklahoma State Cowboys: Week 5 at Baylor
Ditto the state of Oklahoma as it is to Baylor – this game is huge for the Big 12 landscape. The pokes have the benefit of leaving a bye week on a favorable out-of-conference schedule (Central Michigan, Arizona State, FCS Arkansas Pine-Bluff).
OK State saw many turnovers this offseason, including the departure of several All Americans and the departure of Ace defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. How do the Cowboys react to their heartbreaking conference championship loss to these guys?
TCU Horned Frogs: Week 6 in Kansas
TCU almost let this one get away with it last year. It’s easy to overlook an opponent like Kansas, especially when the game is sandwiched between home games against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
Lance Leipold lets the Jayhawks play lively at times. How well trained is this TCU team under Sonny Dykes? A low-key, sleepy outing in Lawrence could either bite the frogs on your ankles or be a piece of cake. The TCU absolutely has to take care of the business here and must not be caught looking ahead.
Texas Longhorns: Week 6 vs. Oklahoma
In the case of Texas, the biggest conference game of the season is also the most important. Oddsmakers are predicting no thrills in Austin in Week 2 against Alabama, and — barring extreme fans — no one is going to overreact to Texas being blown away by the National Champion favorites.
But how are the Horns reacting to their arch-rivals after their 28-7 lead in the first quarter (38-20 at halftime) last season? How does new QB Quinn Ewers fare on the biggest stage? Last year, that loss sent Texas on its longest losing streak in several decades. A loss this year could ruin the entire season.
Texas Tech Red Raiders: Week 2 vs. Houston
If you lose this game, Texas Tech could very well go into bye week 1-4. The Red Raiders play a tough schedule, there’s no doubt about that. But before this bye week, it’s downright brutal: vs. FCS Murray State, vs. Houston, in a ranked state NC, vs. Texas, at Kansas State, and at Oklahoma State.
With conference games just on the horizon, it can be easy for Tech to overlook Houston. But the Cougars are a top-25 team and are bringing back a ton of talent from a 12-win team a season ago. Tech beat them in 2021 so Dana Holgorsen’s crew will be ready to go in 2022.
West Virginia Mountaineers: Week 4 at Virginia Tech
WVU’s biggest game of the season is their opener against longtime rival Pitt. But their make-or-break game could very well be Week 4 on a scrappy Virginia Tech team under new management. Lane Stadium is an impossible place to play.
This is a pretty good disappointment for the Mountaineers, who head to Texas over the next week before saying goodbye and diving headlong into conference play. A potential 2-3 mark with a home game against Baylor and a sneaky, tough game ahead at Texas Tech is dangerous waters for WVU.
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