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Republican Congressman Mike Garcia had a target painted on his back this year.
Garcia barely won a special election in 2020 and a full term later that year, twice defeating Democrat Christy Smith, a former state congresswoman, the second time by just 333 votes.
However, the district of Garcia in the northern suburbs of Los Angeles opted for Democrat Joe Biden in that year’s presidential duel by 12 percentage points and when its boundaries were redrawn by the city’s redistricting commission. state, its Democratic voter registration margin jumped to more than 12%. points.
All of this made Garcia, a former Navy fighter pilot, a potentially prime target in 2022 as Democrats try to keep Republicans from taking control of the House.
Ultimately, however, Garcia coasted a surprisingly easy re-election, beating Smith for the third time by about 5 percentage points, and coincidentally his win gave the GOP the 218 seats it needed to take control. from the room. Also coincidentally, Garcia’s 27th congressional district borders the 20th CD of House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy, who will likely become the next speaker.
The Democratic campaign hierarchy had, for some reason, failed to mount the all-out attack on Garcia that was widely expected and Smith, having lost for the third time, was furious.
“Our campaign got almost zero outside resources to fight this battle. In fact, I was fighting the institutional power of my own party from the start of this race,” Smith said in one of several Twitter posts, lamenting that his lack of support for the party meant that “we had no chance”.
Garcia’s victory is emblematic of what happened in California’s congressional elections this year. Despite pre-election predictions that the state’s large seat count and deep blue leanings would make it a major battleground, the result was a virtual draw.
Republicans needed a net national gain of at least five seats to control the House and Democrats believed that with redistricting and their lopsided voter registration, they could potentially flip that many seats just in California to offset a loss to halfway.
Garcia was just one of five incumbent Republicans who looked vulnerable, and Democrats also thought they could prevail in one or two newly created districts that lacked incumbents.
All five targeted GOP congressmen appear to have survived, though one, perennial target David Valadao of Hanford, is still awaiting a final count in the San Joaquin Valley’s 22nd District, which also shares a border with the 20th. McCarthy CDs. On Monday, Valadao held a five percentage point lead over Democrat Rudy Salas, a state deputy.
It’s entirely possible that when all the votes are tallied, Republicans will have gained a seat or two in California — a far cry from the multiple-seat gain Democrats hoped to score to offset expected losses in other states.
So does that mean California is the deciding factor in the GOP takeover of the House? One could make that argument, but when the overall margin is so slim — not really larger than the current Democratic majority — the results in many states could be claimed as decisive.
A Republican gain of four seats in New York, where Democrats also enjoy a landslide lead in voter registration, looks far more impressive than the status quo result in California.
That said, by standing in California, Republicans can rightfully claim some kind of victory — especially in light of a redistricting process that appeared to shrink their already small congressional delegation. Democrats, meanwhile, should feel a bit chagrined that they couldn’t do better under favorable circumstances.
Dan Walters has been a journalist for over 60 years, spending most of those years working for California newspapers.