Paul Goldschmidt has been the favorite in the National League MVP race for most of the 2022 season, and with good reason. The veteran Cardinals first baseman is in his 11th year in the bigs and he’s never been better, which is really saying something.
We’ll get into the details in a moment, but just know this: Goldschmidt has been a regular MVP contestant throughout his career, with two MVP voting second places (2013 and 2015), one third place (2017) and two sixth places (2018 and 2021). This could very well be the year – his season at age 34 – when he breaks through and wins the award.
However, a formidable challenger has emerged from the field. Austin Riley, who is nine years younger than Goldschmidt, was unconscious in July and was named NL Player of the Month after batting .423 with 1,344 OPS, 11 home runs, 25 RBIs, 15 doubles and 21 runs in 26 games. Just ridiculous.
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Look up the NL MVP odds on any betting site and these two will take the top two spots. Without neglecting the odds of other candidates – there are likely players in their 20s who could jump to the front of the conversation with an August like Riley’s July – let’s take a look at Goldschmidt vs. Riley today.
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Goldschmidt vs. Riley: Basic Scoring Stats
PG: 447 PA, 26 HR, 84 RBI, 74 R, 30 2B, 55 BB, 94 K
AR: 473 PA, 30 HR, 74 RBI, 66 R, 33 2B, 33 BB, 119 K
Throughts: For better or worse, this is where most of the arguments in the season start over MVP awards, with home runs and RBIs and all that good stuff. As someone who has voted for the NL MVP in the past and spoken to many BBWAA contributors who also voted for the award, I can tell you that this is not where the crucial 30 ballots begin. But we just have a fun discussion, so we might as well start it here.
Riley has the edge in home runs and doubles, which is probably not surprising considering he hit 11 home runs and 15 doubles in July alone and had another big night in beating the Red Sox on Tuesday. Goldschmidt has the lead in RBIs and runs, going a lot more and knocking out a lot less. The latter are not the most important thing in the world, but of course they play a role.
It’s a pretty even race at this point.
Goldschmidt vs. Riley: Basic Odds Stats
PG: .329/.413/.609, 1,022 OPS, 191 OPS+
AR: .298/.359/.594, .954 OPS, 158 OPS+
Throughts: We’re starting to see a gap emerging, aren’t we? Riley’s slugging percentage is close — unsurprising given his lead in home runs and doubles — but that’s a pretty massive difference in batting average. But this isn’t where we put a 1980s weight on the batting average, so let’s move on to the base percentage. Here’s how Goldschmidt’s advantage comes into play during walks. This results in an OPS gap of almost 70 points and an OPS+ gap of 33 points.
Part of the OPS+ equation is, of course, the home arena. If you look at multi-year factors, Goldschmidt’s home park rates 94 for batters, while Riley’s home park is 104 – 100 is average, higher favor hitters and lower favor pitchers. And since OPS+ is a stat of about 100 as a league average, with each point above or below equaling one percentage point, we can see that Goldschmidt was 33 percent better than Riley in terms of OPS+ this year.
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Goldschmidt vs. Riley: Advanced Metrics
PG: 5.7 bWAR, 5.3 fWAR, .280 ISO, 186 wRC+, .434 wOBA, 3.9 WPA
AR: 4.8 bWAR, 4.7 fWAR, .296 ISO, 160 wRC+, .405 wOBA, 2.0 WPA
Throughts: We see a lot of the same here. When it comes to performance stats (like ISO), Riley Goldschmidt is on par. When all is considered, the edge shifts firmly to Goldschmidt over Riley.
Goldschmidt vs. Riley: Defense
PG: 0DRS, 3.5UZR/150
AR: minus-3 DRS, minus-14.6 UZR/150
Throughts: Both are excellent defenders. Riley plays the tougher position, third base, although any infielder will tell you the importance of having an above-average defensive glove on first base. Advances have been made in the world of defensive metrics over the past few decades, but they are still a work in progress. Goldschmidt has the advantage on both of the above metrics, but don’t overemphasize it.
Goldschmidt vs. Riley: With runners in goal position
PG: 95 PA, .378/.489/.716, 1,206 OPS, 6 HR, 51 RBI, 18 BB, 13 K
AR: 124 PA, .275/.347/.569, .955 OPS, 7 HR, 41 RBI, 10 BB, 30 K
Throughts: If there were any doubts about which player should be the MVP leader at that point, they should be cleared when you look at these stats. Riley was really good with runners in scoring position – the most important plate appearances in each game – but Goldschmidt was incredible, an on-base percentage of nearly .500, more walks than strikeouts and 15 more RBIs than Riley in 26 fewer plate- appearances. Riley has three times as many strikeouts as walks with RISP, and his OPS with RISP (.916) is lower than with empty bases (.955).
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— MLB (@MLB) May 24, 2022
And with RISP and two outs, Goldschmidt really shines: .405 average, .865 slugging percentage, and 1.328 OPS. In 42 plate appearances in this situation, Goldschmidt has 28 RBIs and only five strikeouts. With a runner on third base and two outs, Goldschmidt has .438 (Riley’s .222). In high leverage situations, Goldschmidt has an OPS of 1.015 and Riley has an OPS of 0.726.
Final Verdict
No wonder if you’ve read up to this point. Austin Riley is having a fantastic season but Paul Goldschmidt is the NL MVP at this point and it’s not particularly close.