I’m not a “dog person”, but in my work you meet a lot of canine companions. It always brightens my day when a dog I know sits at the end of the driveway and they shove their face in my hand for a pet. In fact, they are all good dogs.
The only thing is, no matter how many days in a row you’ve itched their face, any dog could bite you one day. The dog may have had a bad morning or their hearing is failing and they don’t see you coming any closer. Maybe they’ve gotten a little senile and have forgotten that you’re the kind person who brings them a treat, instead mistaking you for a bad person who takes things and hurts their humans.
Much like even the best dogs, a solid defense in a convincing matchup can still bite you. The inherent risk of randomness is one of the appeals of fantasy football – and streaming defense in particular. It requires you to always be on the alert, looking for the best possible situations and not assuming anything.
However, we hope to reduce this randomness and keep our fantasy lineups safe. Which Defenses Below 40% Rostership Should You Stream in Week 5?
Table of Contents
Last week
New York Giants D/ST vs. CHI: 16 points, 2nd
Detroit D/ST vs. SEA: -2 points, 32nd place
Indianapolis D/ST vs TEN: 3 points, t-24
For the second week in a row, we’ve identified a top 2 defense. This week it was the New York Giants in the absolute best streamer matchup in the league: the Chicago Bears. Chicago still can’t get anything going on offense, and the G-Men forced them to six sacks and three takeaways.
On the other side of the coin, our riskier games didn’t pay off. The Detroit Lions are atrocious and couldn’t get out of a paper bag, while the Indianapolis Colts just aren’t the same without defensive signal caller Shaquille Leonard and an offense that’s constantly stuck at idle.
Minnesota Vikings
against Chicago Bears
Spread: MIN -7
Roster Percentage: 42%
The Minnesota Vikings lined up for an incredible game last week before some key strikes from their opponents led to a shootout atmosphere. Still, they capitalized on poor offense and earned Fantasy Managers 6 points with two sacks and two forced fumbles.
This unit is still one of the worst in the league at getting pressure (7th lowest pressure rate), but they made the most of their pass rush (12th-most sacks per pressure; sack conversion rate) and are buckled down the secondary slightly (22nd team-adjusted net passing yards per attempt; ANY/A). I readily admit that the Minnesota defense could burst the bubble at any time, especially with top playmakers Harrison Smith, Eric Kendricks and Patrick Peterson all at the end of their careers.
Still, it’s hard to ignore just how bad Chicago’s offense was. Of the 31 quarterbacks to fall behind at least 100 times in 2022, Justin Fields is easily the tastiest thanks to a 5.8% turn rate (1st; per PFF) and allowable pressure rate of 41.0% (also peaks). matchup on paper. The Bears finally got some things moving in Week 4, but it’s too early to say given their dismal track record they’ll be able to sustain their success for nearly a quarter of the season.
Our model predicts the Minnesota D/ST at 9.6 fantasy points, the most among the D/STs in Week 5. As home favorites after a touchdown, they have one of the highest floors and the best processes surrounding them. They are by far the best streamers if they are still available in your league.
Miami Dolphins
at New York Jets
Spread: MIA -3.5
Roster Percentage: 22%
All hasn’t been perfect for the Miami Dolphins lately, but the defense remains a compelling unit heading for a division tilt in Week 5. Despite being on the road this week, Miami is the favorite with more than one field goal and is fairly prevalent in fantasy leagues.
Sure, they’re the second-worst defense by pressure rate, and — yes, of course — they allow the third-highest ANY/A. However, like the Vikings, Miami is opportunistic with its sacks and is also currently a top-12 unit in this category. Would you like me to recommend them? no
What I do Love is quarterback Zach Wilson’s return to the starting lineup for the Dolphins’ Week 5 opponent: the New York Jets. Wilson came back from injury last week and promptly threw two interceptions despite leading the Jets to a comeback win. We don’t care about the real W; we want these turning points. Now, if Wilson were to qualify among quarterbacks, his 9.3% turnover-worthy play rate would nearly double Fields’, and his 35.0% allowable press rate would be the third-highest.
Our model projects the Miami D/ST at 8.6, the week’s fifth-highest fantasy forecast. The Dolphins are decent favorites on neutral ground, and capable quarterback Teddy Bridgewater should ensure they stay in a positive game script.
Jacksonville Jaguars
against Houston Texans
Distribution: JAX-7
Roster Percentage: 16%
Unironically, the Jacksonville Jaguars are incredibly fun to watch in 2022 after their debacle of a bad year last season. Despite their struggles, the Jaguars took very few steps on defense during the offseason — because they didn’t have to.
At the start of the year, everyone expected Jacksonville to remain #DownBad, but they are a top-notch defensive unit right now. They are the 4th highest print rate and 6th highest in ANY/A, they even have a higher cap than they have shown thanks to a sack conversion rate that currently ranks 6th worst. If they can just apply more pressure to land on the quarterback, they could look even more dangerous than they currently do.
This week they face the vulnerable Houston Texans, who are among the best matchups for fantasy defenses. Quarterback Davis Mills presents only mid-range peripherals, but this Houston team is full of fresh faces and role-playing players who haven’t quite gelled — and might not be all season. Fumbling and offensive ineffectiveness have plagued the Texans so far, and that should continue into Week 5.
Our model projects this week’s Jacksonville D/ST at a 7.8 fantasy score, seventh best in our Defense rankings. They’re touchdown favorites at home and should be in control of the game, forcing Houston to take bad chances to keep up.